I don't know if Dream faked his speedrun, but I do have to say I fully enjoy his videos. Not only are his videos exciting, they are funny...and I have seen some of the most epic Minecraft moves and strategies I have ever seen on his videos, especially on his speedrun videos.
Now having said that, I will not make a judgment about this in my head. If he is guilty, then that sucks. I hate dishonesty. It discredits the one who is being dishonest. However, if he is innocent, I would also say this accusation is not surprising and almost expected. When you are on top, everyone wants to take you down.
I would much prefer to be ignorant here and just simply enjoy the content Dream produces. I couldn't even Dream doing the things he has done....
Minecraft speedrun leaderboards courtesy of speedrun.com YouTuber and Minecraft speedrunner Dream has recently come under scrutiny for accusations of cheating in some of his most recent speedruns.
According to up and coming YouTuber Shell Guy, Dream's most recent speedruns should have no mathematical way of existing without some sort of modding to the game itself.
The scrutiny comes from Dream's incredible luck in trading with piglins, a mob found in Minecraft's Nether dimension, where he received around four times more Ender Pearl trades than average.
As a result of Dream's incredible showings, there has been a rapid growth in his YouTube subscribers.
The claims and evidence against this Minecraft speedrunner
Shell Guy analyzed over 250 of Dream's trades with piglins across 21 runs over six sessions. The graph above on the left shows the actual chances for each of the piglin trades, whereas the graph on the right shows the total trades taken from the sample of 21 of Dream's speed runs.
The first thing that should jump out to people is that Dream's Ender Pearl trades are significantly higher than what the average should show, totaling 41 out of 263 trades, nearly 400% over the usual trade average.
This discrepancy, mixed with how active Dream is in hunting down Minecraft speedrun cheaters to expose them, brought Shell Guy to the decision to investigate.
The math and how it could have happened
There's a lot of probability math in the image above; however, it all boils down to showing that the chances of Dream having the success that he did is a one in forty billion chance.
While one in forty billion is a ridiculously slim chance to get, it's not impossible, just highly, highly, highly improbable. For players who are involved in Minecraft's speedrunning community, this is the same likelihood as an End Portal spawning with eleven out of twelve eyes of Ender already placed.
So if Dream did in fact cheat, how would he have done it?
He is a programmer and codes many plug-ins for Minecraft, which is how he's able to deliver the crazy videos that impress even some modders from Minecraft's largest and most popular mods.
With this expertise, it's not unlikely that he's figured out how to modify loot tables of trades and increased the ~5% chance of getting ender pearls from piglins to nearly 15%.
What this means for the community
If the allegations from Shell Guy turn out to be true, then Dream's name will be washed from the scoreboard, along with his run privileges for Minecraft. This would definitely cause a rift between Dream and his fans, and also amongst a large portion of the speedrunning community, as Minecraft has already had its fair share of cheated runs. The highest likelihood is that Dream is just someone who has been incredibly lucky with his speedruns. But there will be some kind of checks from the professionals, in this case the speedrun.com moderators, to come out with an active answer regarding Shell Guy's allegations.
Anyhow, when it comes to accusations online, they always have to be taken with a pinch of salt.